By: Maggie Parker, MPA/MCRP Candidate, UNC CH

Ranked as the 10^th Top Market in ULI’s Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2015 report, the Raleigh-Durham community has much to be excited about. On November 20, local real estate leaders gathered for ULI Triangle’s Annual 2015 Real Estate Trends event at the NC Museum of History. After attendees caught up with old friends and welcomed new faces, ULI Senior Vice President Dean Schwanke shared insights on national and international trends that help define Raleigh-Durham as an 18-hour market.  Following his presentation, Schwanke joined a panel of real estate leaders –John Kane, CEO of Kane Realty; Ben Liebetrau, Director with Greystar Development Group; and Adam Sichol, Managing Partner of Longfellow Real Estate Partners – on a discussion of local real estate trends.  The panel was moderated by Gary Joyner, Partner of Kilpatrick Townsend & Stockton LLP.

The ULI’s Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2015 report is available  here . ULI’s survey of more than 1,400 leading real estate experts  affirmed the Triangle’s climb to the tenth market to watch in the nation, primarily due to its development as an 18-hour City. This year’s report introduced the concept of the “18-hour market,” where a reemergence in retail, dining, and walk-to-work offices in urban cores has spurred investment and development that raise the quality of life. With Raleigh-Durham cited as a primary example, the term distinguishes cities from the nine-to-five and 24-hour urban markets.

On the future of the Raleigh-Durham market, the panelists agreed on the impact of demographic trends: millennials were here to stay. Sichol cited the Triangle’s universities as a driver for attracting and retaining millennials, with the potential for future growth.  That potential for growth was cited by Sichol as one reason his Boston-based company, Longfellow Real Estate Partners, is part of the development team behind the “Innovation District” master plan to redevelop 15 acres in downtown Durham. “Durham.ID”  includes 1.7 million square feet of primarily office, laboratory, and residential space.

As the Triangle continues to serve the millennial population, Dean Schwanke of ULI suggested drawing a parallel to Austin, another market at the top of ULI’s survey. “It has the state capital, major universities, and it has really become a tech hub. It is a parallel that [Raleigh-Durham] can look to and say you are right with them,” he said.

Panelists were not only keeping an eye on the millennial generation, but also discussed Baby Boomers, many of whom are deciding to be ‘renters by choice.’  This trend among Baby Boomers is helping to support the continued strength of the multi-family housing market. Liebetrau noted in the next 10-15 years, 1 in 5 Americans will be 65 years and older. His company, Greystar, commissioned research showing markets with large in-migration of millennials and working adults also are experiencing high growth in the senior population. Kane noted that Baby Boomers are renting apartments in North Hills in Raleigh, attracted by the development’s amenities, including a walkable lifestyle.

The Triangle’s strength in research and technology also presents opportunities for improvement. Coming from Boston, Sichol drew similarities between the two regions in the discussion on capital markets. Investors looked toward both the Raleigh-Durham and Boston markets for their anchors to strong college and university systems, alongside an influx of NIH funding.  “The Triangle is the 5th largest recipient of NIH funding. Duke and UNC alone are both top 12 NIH recipients,” he said. Given the high density of PhDs per capital and affordability, the Triangle continues to stand out.  However, the region can further support technology and innovation industries with a central urban research center and more access to venture capitalists, a niche Adam suggests the area is lacking from his discussions with local economic development professionals.

Overall, these highlights demonstrate the energy and excitement in the room for the future of the Raleigh-Durham market. Being recognized as the 10^th Top Market by ULI was no small feat, but demonstrated the continued passion from the Triangle’s key real estate leaders.

Maggie Parker is a 2015 candidate for the Master of Public Administration and Master of City and Regional Planning degrees at UNC-Chapel Hill. She is interested in innovative and catalytic real estate developments that leverage public-private partnerships.